Mesoscale Discussion 1483
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK and western AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140742Z - 140945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Developing storms may pose an isolated large hail and
   strong/gusty wind threat as they move southeastward early this
   morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with a weak mid-level
   perturbation moving southeastward across southern KS and modest
   low-level warm advection are likely supporting storm development
   over eastern OK and far western AR early this morning. The VWP from
   KSRX show a veering wind profile with height through mid levels,
   although flow remains rather weak below 6 km AGL. Still, there
   should be enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft
   organization in tandem with moderate elevated instability (MUCAPE
   generally 2000-2500 J/kg). The presence of steep mid-level lapse
   rates coupled with the sufficient deep-layer shear suggests an
   isolated, marginally severe hail risk with this initial development.
   With time, storms may have a tendency to cluster and develop
   southeastward into western AR as the low-amplitude shortwave trough
   moves over this area. Strong/gusty winds cannot be ruled out given
   the reservoir of buoyancy present, but the overall severe risk
   should remain too isolated/marginal to justify watch issuance early
   this morning.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34019506 35479593 36289624 36579565 36389442 35799351
               34869314 33979333 33659421 34019506