Mesoscale Discussion 1484
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

   Valid 141014Z - 141145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and severe wind threat continues
   mainly across parts of southern ND.

   DISCUSSION...Storm intensity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
   has fluctuated over the past couple of hours, but recently a couple
   of storms across southern ND have strengthened. This convection will
   likely develop east-northeastward along a sharp elevated instability
   gradient. As a shortwave trough continues eastward across the
   northern Plains, mid-level winds will strengthen further. Related
   effective bulk shear will likewise remain rather strong over this
   region (50-55+ kt). This will easily support supercells with both a
   large hail and severe wind threat. A lead supercell in south-central
   ND has a MRMS MESH hail core estimate around 2 inches. The trailing
   storm near the ND/SD border as of 1014Z appears to be mostly
   orthogonal to the mid-level southwesterly flow, with some recent
   evolution into a small bowing cluster. This cluster produced a 65
   mph wind gust earlier very near the ND/SD line, and similar wind
   speeds may continue to occur as it tracks generally
   east-northeastward across parts of southern ND over the next couple
   of hours.

   ..Gleason.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45980190 46440210 46930063 47129921 47039854 46339850
               46069959 45970093 45980190