Mesoscale Discussion 1485
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 141106Z - 141300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated
   large hail should increase this morning as storms move
   northeastward. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms currently in southern ND is
   expected to advance northeastward this morning as a pronounced
   shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern Plains. A
   surface low remains centered over central SD, with a front extending
   northeastward across eastern ND into northwestern MN. It appears
   likely that the ongoing convection will advance along a sharp
   elevated instability gradient into eastern ND over the next couple
   of hours, which roughly coincides with the surface boundary. Steep
   mid-level lapse rates and increasing low-level moisture are
   supporting MUCAPE of 1500-3500 J/kg generally along and south of the
   front. Strong deep-layer shear will continue to foster storm
   organization, and both large hail and severe/damaging winds may
   occur. Other convection is ongoing in a low-level warm advection
   regime and along an outflow boundary across parts of far
   southeastern ND into western MN. Current expectations are for the
   greatest severe threat to be focused in a fairly narrow corridor
   along/north of this ongoing warm advection activity, and along/south
   of the front. The severe/damaging wind threat may increase across
   parts of eastern ND and northwestern MN later this morning if storms
   across south-central ND continue to grow upscale into a small
   cluster. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears likely in the
   next hour or so to account for this increasing severe threat.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46319681 46419776 47039832 47589846 48149760 48609639
               48779530 48689475 48239456 47609471 46549543 46369593
               46319681