Mesoscale Discussion 1488
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of east central through south central
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141950Z - 142145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated to widely scattered severe storm
   development is possible through 6-7 PM CDT.  It is not yet clear
   that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being
   monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...The surface cold front is outrunning stronger mid-level
   cooling, and appears to be generally beneath the 700 mb thermal
   ridge axis, associated with the remnant plume of warm and capping
   elevated mixed-layer air.  However, latest mesoanalysis suggests
   that pre-frontal daytime heating, of a seasonably moist boundary
   layer with lower 70s F surface dew points, is contributing to
   increasingly negligible inhibition.  And deepening convective
   development is evident along/just ahead of the southward advancing
   surface cold front, likely aided by frontogenetic forcing and/or
   increasing low-level convergence.  This is generally south of the
   eastward propagating 40-50 kt cyclonic mid-level jet, but at least
   isolated to widely scattered intensifying boundary-layer based storm
   development appears possible as far south as the Kansas border
   vicinity through 23-00Z.  

   Even with deep-layer vertical shear remaining modest to weak, very
   steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting large CAPE up to
   3000-4000 J/kg.  As storms initiate, this environment likely will
   contribute to the potential for large hail, initially, before the
   potential for strong surface gusts becomes more prominent,
   associated with localized downbursts and strengthening surface cold
   pools.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40629959 41069889 41349837 41759773 41869752 41889720
               41259699 40519797 40069905 40309974 40629959