Mesoscale Discussion 1489
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of western Kansas and adjacent portions of
   the Great Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142022Z - 142215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms may develop through
   4-6 PM MDT, accompanied by the potential to produce locally severe
   hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident near the
   dryline, where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is
   contributing to large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, in the presence
   of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.  As inhibition
   continues to weaken with further boundary-layer heating, focused
   low-level convergence may support the initiation of a couple of
   storms near/east of the Colorado/Kansas state border area into
   adjacent portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle.  Although deep-layer
   westerly to northwesterly mean ambient flow is generally light
   (around 10 kt), veering of winds with height may be contributing to
   marginally sufficient shear for supercell structures capable of
   producing severe hail.  

   Locally strong downbursts are also possible, accompanied by strong
   to severe surface gusts.  And, as outflow spreads away from
   initiating convection, additional short-lived convective development
   is possible across the adjacent plains, but storms should otherwise
   tend to slowly drift south/southwestward.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38440208 39330134 39570057 39150051 37930089 37540109
               37190113 36740139 36530181 36920217 38440208