Mesoscale Discussion 1492
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern NE...Western IA...Southwest MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...

   Valid 142235Z - 150000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat will shift into eastern
   portions of ww436 over the next few hours. It's not entirely clear
   when/if a new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed downstream.

   DISCUSSION...Convection that developed earlier ahead of the cold
   front has struggled to intensify, and in many cases this pre-frontal
   activity has actually weakened, or dissipated. Forecast soundings
   suggest this may be due to a pronounced warm layer observed near
   700mb. As a result, frontal convergence appears instrumental in
   maintaining robust updrafts. Over the last few hours, strongest
   thunderstorms reflect this with near-frontal storms exhibiting more
   intensity. For these reasons, severe threat should be tied closely
   to the surface wind shift. Strongest convection should advance from
   west to east with this boundary.

   ..Darrow.. 08/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   41439792 44379595 44379433 41439636 41439792