Mesoscale Discussion 1495
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0901 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

   Areas affected...Central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

   Valid 150201Z - 150300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A large hail and damaging wind threat will persist across
   central Kansas for a few more hours.

   DISCUSSION...The current cluster of supercells in north central
   Kansas has shown no sign of weakening to this point and has produced
   2.5 inch hail as recently as 120Z. Temperatures remain in the upper
   80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s ahead of this activity. SPC
   mesoanalysis shows these storms moving into a reservoir of 4500 J/kg
   MLCAPE with no inhibition suggesting these storms may persist for a
   few more hours as they move south. Additional evidence for this is
   the new storm which has formed in southern Osborne county (ahead of
   the cold front) in the last 45 minutes showing that surface based
   buoyancy is still present. Averaging the 00Z RAOB from DDC and TOP
   suggests effective shear around 30 to 35 kts and mid-level lapse
   rates of 8.8 C/km. This will continue to support a threat for large
   hail and perhaps some damaging winds. Without any upper-level
   support and no low-level jet, expect these storms to weaken slowly
   as the boundary layer cools over the next several hours. A small
   severe thunderstorm watch was issued downstream of this activity
   given the expectation for it to persist for a few more hours.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39369891 39569847 39689805 39629750 39099710 38389732
               38159797 38129873 38499892 39369891