Mesoscale Discussion 1497
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northern
   Arkansas...southeastern Kansas...northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151900Z - 152100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms are expected to develop along outflow
   boundaries in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas within the
   next 1-2 hours. Damaging downburst winds will be the primary hazard
   with isolated large hail also possible. No WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from convection earlier today has
   settled across northern Arkansas into southeastern Missouri. As
   convection has decayed, a secondary outflow boundary has developed
   and moved into south-central Missouri. Observed 12Z LZK and SGF
   soundings showed steep mid-level lapse rates and convective
   temperatures in the low 90s F. Current surface observations suggest
   that MLCIN should be eliminated within the next 1-2 hours. Lift
   along the northern boundary is stronger per visible satellite.
   Isolated storms are expected most likely along this more
   well-defined northern boundary. MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg, with
   locally higher values in southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri,
   and effective shear of 25-30 kts should promote weakly organized
   storms capable of strong/damaging downbursts and perhaps isolated
   large hail. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated and
   disorganized enough that no WW is anticipated this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   35339408 35679505 36279582 37139585 37539500 37469371
               37399278 37259250 38169098 38499055 38238971 37039005
               36169078 35259230 35339408