Mesoscale Discussion 1499
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 152014Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is expected to move out of southern Manitoba
   and intensify across northern Minnesota. The environment will favor
   supercells/multicells capable of large hail and isolated damaging
   winds. A WW may need to be considered by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has begun to form in south-central
   Manitoba. Continued surface heating and modest ascent southeastward
   of this activity should lead to this activity deepening and
   intensifying this afternoon. Low-level moisture is somewhat limited,
   but is maximized in northwest Minnesota with mid 50s F to low 60s F.
   Cold temperatures aloft will support 1000-1500 MLCAPE as surface
   heating continues into the afternoon. Long, straight hodographs with
   effective shear values of 30-40 kts will favor splitting
   supercells/multicells capable of large hail and isolated damaging
   winds. Upper-level forcing appears sufficient to support
   widely-scattered to scattered storms. A WW may need to be considered
   by 21Z.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   49129704 49139616 49209472 48339229 48329210 47469184
               46799228 46459360 46609434 47489555 48359660 49129704