Mesoscale Discussion 1500
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado into northeastern
   New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152017Z - 152215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may gradually strengthen while
   spreading east and southeast of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this
   afternoon.  Some of these may be accompanied by locally strong
   surface gusts, and perhaps some hail.  It currently seems unlikely
   that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue
   to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Aided largely by orographic forcing, thunderstorm
   development is now well underway near and just north through east of
   the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  This is occurring in the presence
   of generally light (10 kt or less) westerly to west-northwesterly
   deep-layer ambient mean flow.  Deep-layer shear is also weak, but
   modest northwesterly high-level flow could enhance stronger, deeper
   convective development.

   The boundary layer to the immediate east of the higher terrain
   appears to be undergoing deepening mixing, with somewhat modest CAPE
   on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.  However, this environment probably
   will be conducive to the risk for locally strong surface gusts, with
   at least some potential for further intensification as convection
   encounters better low-level moisture  with eastward progression into
   the plains, closer to or after 00Z.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38370469 38680377 38060318 37200293 35950326 35070408
               34680500 35050535 36380441 38370469