Mesoscale Discussion 1501
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152043Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The evolution of a westward advancing cluster of
   thunderstorms near or just south of the international border is
   possible through late afternoon.  This may be accompanied by
   potential for strong wind gusts and blowing dust across parts of
   southern Arizona.

   DISCUSSION...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm development is
   underway across the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona and
   northern Sonora, where light westerly low-level flow, beneath light
   east-northeasterly to easterly mid-level flow may aid propagation
   toward lower elevations through early evening.  With westward
   extent, away from the highest terrain, a hot and deeply-mixed
   boundary layer appears to become increasing moist and supportive of
   sizable CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg.

   As convection propagates into this air mass, various model output
   indicates that considerable upscale growth is possible by 23-01Z. 
   If this occurs, consolidation of surface cold pools may contribute
   to an organizing cluster, accompanied by increasing potential for
   strong surface winds along the westward surging gust front.  While
   the bulk of this convection may remain south of the international
   border, it is possible that the surface cold pool could impact
   adjacent portions of southern Arizona, with strong wind gusts and
   blowing dust.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

   LAT...LON   32331089 32050988 31850937 30740864 29841012 31371253
               32331089