Mesoscale Discussion 1502
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...A large portion of Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152140Z - 152315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible for a few hours
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along a cold front moving
   through Illinois. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in
   the upper 60s to near 70 ahead of this line yielding MLCAPE around
   1500 to 2500 J/kg. Storms will likely remain cellular along the
   front given the weak convergence along the boundary. The KILX VWP
   shows around 30 knots of westerly flow at 5km which yields effective
   shear around 25 to 30 kts. This should be sufficient for multicell
   and marginal supercell storm mode. Weak flow should limit the
   overall wind threat, but an occasional damaging wind gust cannot be
   ruled out.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   39599087 40918956 41918881 42538819 42668783 42148762
               41858756 41618727 39988787 38748879 38578991 38959074
               39599087