Mesoscale Discussion 1503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152322Z - 160045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms remain possible through the
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in eastern New Mexico is slowly
   drifting southeastward with additional storms developing farther
   east. MLCAPE is only around 500 to 1000 J/kg in this region with
   effective shear at or below 20 kts per KFDX VWP. Given this somewhat
   unfavorable environment, expect storm intensity to remain somewhat
   muted through the evening. However, there is evidence a cold pool
   has developed in Guadalupe county and it is moving toward an area
   which is uncapped according to SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, expect
   additional storm development through the evening which should
   continue to enforce/strengthen the cold pool. The aforementioned
   lack of tropospheric flow should limit the overall intensity, but a
   few strong to severe wind gusts is possible, especially with the
   strongest storms (likely near the interaction with other outflow
   boundaries currently across De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt counties.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35280444 35690401 35200296 34330291 33680307 33490364
               33670425 33990466 34520496 35280444