Mesoscale Discussion 1504
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast ND...Northern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

   Valid 152339Z - 160115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across mostly northern Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal low-level lapse rates are quite steep
   across the northern Plains into western ON where surface-3km values
   remain near 9 C/km. Over the last few hours convection has focused
   along a surface front, mostly across western ON/southeast MB;
   although, an isolated thunderstorm has recently developed over
   northwest MN.  With low-level flow veered ahead of the front,
   surface convergence necessary for robust convection is tied closely
   to the boundary, and strongest north of the border. Even so,
   convection that is organizing across western ON should gradually sag
   south into northern MN. Gusty winds and some hail threat remain.

   ..Darrow.. 08/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47349735 49099733 48369310 46659312 47349735