Mesoscale Discussion 1509
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into central Nebraska and
   northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 161856Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Destabilization and cumulus development is occurring along
   a weak cold front in the central Plains. Large to very large hail
   will be possible with initial storms that develop in the next 1-2
   hours. One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of cumulus have developed and begun to deepen
   along a weak cold front from northeast Colorado into central
   Nebraska. Temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s F
   with dewpoints holding in the mid 50s in Colorado to upper 60s F in
   central/southern Nebraska. 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE has been
   objectively analyzed across this area with around 30 kts of
   effective shear across the boundary. With initial development
   expected to be cellular and regional 12Z observed soundings sampling
   7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, large to very large hail will be
   possible early in the convective cycle. Storms are expected to grow
   upscale with time into one or more clusters/MCSs. The most likely
   place for this to occur is near the CO/KS border where storm
   coverage may be greater along a remnant frontal boundary. Damaging
   wind gusts will also be possible, particularly with any MCS that
   develops. One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely this
   afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41700036 41969872 42019827 41779800 41439782 40919783
               40639808 39689891 38959982 38470098 38220191 38140216
               38230262 38450349 39470375 40500343 41700036