Mesoscale Discussion 1510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Red River Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161913Z - 162115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few clusters of strong/severe storms are possible this
   afternoon along a cold front. Despite strong to extreme buoyancy,
   shear remains quite weak and storms will be disorganized. A WW is
   not expected this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated along a southward sagging cold
   front in southeastern Oklahoma and within the northeastern Texas
   Panhandle. Strong to extreme buoyancy (3000-4500 J/kg/MLCAPE)
   resides along this boundary and will fuel intense storm development
   this afternoon. Deep-layer wind fields, however, are quite weak and
   storm organization should be minimal. Mid-level lapse rates of 8+
   C/km were observed this morning on regional soundings. Large hail
   will be possible with the strongest storms with a greater overall
   threat for strong/severe outflow winds across the area. Visible
   satellite shows outflow from convection in western Oklahoma moving
   southward. New development may occur along this boundary as it
   continues toward the Red River. The greatest severe risk will be
   tied to wherever storms can cluster together. Without greater storm
   organization, however, a WW is not likely this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36230121 36520088 36129962 35659888 35059766 34649622
               34369512 33829457 33059460 32759522 33139678 33939948
               34590068 35520121 36230121