Mesoscale Discussion 1513
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

   Areas affected...Central Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162205Z - 162330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging downbursts are possible the next few
   hours. At this time a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
   warranted.

   DISCUSSION...A few small clusters of strong convection have
   developed ahead of a weak surface front over central MS. This
   activity is primarily driven by strong boundary-layer heating which
   allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen in excess of 8 C/km,
   resulting in MLCAPE values on the order of 3500 J/kg. Latest
   water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak mid-level eddies are
   drifting south-southwest along the frontal zone which may be
   encouraging this activity, and possible extend its longevity through
   the early evening hours. With high-PW air mass, the primary concern
   is local wet micro bursts.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33288971 32208848 31408928 31709055 33288971