Mesoscale Discussion 1514
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

   Valid 162331Z - 170100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues
   across southeast Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells along and ahead of a southward
   moving cold front should continue through the evening. The airmass
   ahead of this activity remains quire favorable with MLCAPE around
   3000 to 4000 J/kg and effective shear around 40 kts per UEX VWP. The
   exception is across far southeast Nebraska where drier air is
   present and thus instability is more meager. Therefore, expect this
   easternmost convection to continue to weaken as it moves into an
   increasingly hostile airmass. Farther west where supercells are
   expected to persist, both large hail and damaging winds remain
   possible. The combination of strong shear and well organized
   supercells combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km per
   SPC mesoanalysis will also support a continued threat for some 2+
   inch hail. 

   Storms are expected to congeal and interact with several outflow
   boundaries in the next 1 to 2 hours. This may eventually lead to a
   cluster of storms that could pose a greater severe wind threat for a
   few hours as storms approach the Kansas border.

   ..Bentley.. 08/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40739929 41199838 41459739 41219615 40799573 40219601
               39939759 39869841 40209914 40739929