Mesoscale Discussion 1516
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

   Areas affected...North-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170023Z - 170200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch is possible as a cluster
   of storms drifts south out of Nebraska

   DISCUSSION...Storms have quickly congealed into a cluster in
   southeast Nebraska and have started to accelerate
   south-southwestward. Expect this storm activity to follow the
   instability gradient which would take the cluster into north-central
   and eventually central Kansas. There is some uncertainty how far
   south this cluster will maintain severe thresholds this evening and
   into the overnight hours. The air mass south of this activity
   remains favorable for severe convection with MLCAPE around 3000 to
   4000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis and effective shear around 40 kts per
   KUEX VWP which should maintain this cluster for at least a few more
   hours. If the cluster becomes well organized, it may persist south
   of watch 443 and 444 and a new watch may be needed. In addition, new
   convection has recently formed from Jewell to Graham counties and
   has shown quite robust updraft growth. Therefore, if these storms
   maintain this intensity as they move southeast, a new watch may need
   to be issued sooner. These trends will be monitored over the next
   hour.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39360014 39919889 40169799 40209725 40119689 39759669
               39199682 38759724 38519778 38529808 38449885 38529943
               38660012 39360014