Mesoscale Discussion 1521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

   Areas affected...Central and southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172348Z - 180115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may move off the higher terrain and produce a
   few severe wind gusts this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along the Mogollon Rim and
   are slowly drifting southeastward. These storms will be moving into
   a very hot airmass with temperatures of 110 to 115 F and dewpoints
   around 50F. This yields MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg. The KIWA VWP
   shows effective shear around 30 to 35 kts which should be plenty
   sufficient for storm organization. However, the limited instability
   will likely preclude a greater severe-weather threat. Nonetheless, a
   few strong to severe storms are possible through the evening, and
   given the very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and DCAPE values
   over 2000 J/kg, a few severe wind gusts may be possible through the
   evening, especially if any storms congeal into clusters and create
   an enhanced cold pool.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31290942 32770957 33730997 34471095 34891187 34781261
               33081275 31771268 31281107 31290942