Mesoscale Discussion 1524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182049Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely-scattered wind gusts are possible as
   storms move off the Mogollon Rim. Strong/severe wind gusts will be
   the primary hazard this afternoon and evening. The lack of greater
   storm clustering is expected to preclude a WW.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along the Mogollon Rim underneath
   the Great Basin upper-level ridge. Storms will eventually move off
   of the Rim and progress west/southwestward. Surface observations and
   satellite PWAT retrievals continue to suggest that greater storm
   coverage is most likely in west-central Arizona as drier air remains
   to the south and east. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-30 kts of
   effective shear in the western portions of the state will support
   marginally organized storms. Strong/severe wind gusts will be the
   main hazard as strong surface heating has deepened the boundary
   layer to around 5 km. Without more substantial clustering, the
   overall threat for wind gusts will be isolated to widely scattered
   at best. A WW is not currently anticipated this afternoon/evening.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   34921507 35701446 35611317 34541144 33810962 33160926
               32571012 32161176 33051315 33991472 34921507