Mesoscale Discussion 1525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182221Z - 182345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are expected through the
   evening from southeast Oregon into southwest Idaho

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed in southeast Oregon on the
   eastern edge of a mid-level moisture plume. Low-level instability
   remains weak (~250 J/kg MLCAPE), but these storms have formed in an
   area of minimal CIN. Expect instability to increase and CIN to
   continue to decrease ahead of this storm activity as mid-level
   temperatures start to cool as the upper-ridge breaks down. As this
   occurs, additional storm development is expected. SPC mesoanalysis
   shows effective shear around 35 to 45 kts which should aid in
   updraft organization. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms are
   expected through the evening. The limited moisture and hot boundary
   layer should limit the hail threat with steep low to mid-level lapse
   rates supporting severe wind gusts as the primary threat. A severe
   thunderstorm watch is not expected, but if several organized storms
   can develop, one may need to be considered.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   42661907 43321872 45101657 44981523 44001472 42731531
               42041734 41951843 42121891 42661907