Mesoscale Discussion 1528
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0808 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of north central and northeast Oregon

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190108Z - 190245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
   and early overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A plume of moisture around 700mb (observed on 00Z MFR
   RAOB) has led to around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE across much of eastern
   Oregon according to SPC mesoanalysis. This elevated instability is
   expected to increase through the evening as mid-level temperatures
   start to cool ahead of a trough approaching the Pacific Northwest.
   Forcing for ascent remains weak, but a few isolated storms (such as
   the one in northern Crook County at 01Z) may persist through the
   evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate mid to upper
   level flow around 50 kts (per MFR 00Z RAOB) provides ample
   cloud-bearing layer shear for occasional supercell storm modes.
   Overall, the weak instability and weak forcing for ascent will
   likely limit the severe-weather threat, but a couple of stronger
   storms are possible with a threat for some strong to severe wind
   gusts.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

   LAT...LON   44142123 44922093 45642044 45931945 46171812 45551758
               44611794 43641937 43271995 43102060 43132085 43362118
               44142123