Mesoscale Discussion 1529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern ND and northwestern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190954Z - 191200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may persist for the next
   couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection that has developed early this
   morning across parts of northwestern MN is largely being supported
   by warm advection related to a modest 25-35 kt southwesterly
   low-level jet. Additional storms have recently formed along the
   ND/MN border, possibly being aided by ascent preceding a subtle
   mid-level perturbation moving southeastward across southern
   Manitoba. Steep mid-level lapse rates observed on the 00Z BIS
   sounding remain present across much of ND and northwestern MN, which
   is aiding around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The southwesterly winds
   associated with the low-level jet veer quickly with height to
   northwesterly at mid/upper levels while also gradually
   strengthening. This is supporting 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear,
   which is more than sufficient for supercells. Given the stable
   boundary layer present across this region, isolated instances of
   large hail will likely be the main severe threat with ongoing and
   developing convection for the next couple of hours. Expectations are
   for storms to remain rather isolated, and no watch issuance is
   expected at this time.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47559770 48009772 48349698 48669595 48449521 47439513
               47019584 47019697 47219744 47559770