Mesoscale Discussion 1531
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

   Areas affected...Central Idaho and southwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192105Z - 192300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely-scattered to scattered storms are possible this
   afternoon and evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
   are possible with this activity. The severe threat is expected to
   remain isolated and no WW is currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Though high level cloud cover has hindered boundary
   layer destabilization in most areas, visible satellite shows
   increasing cumulus development within the Bitterroot Mountains and
   parts of central Idaho. Water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
   upstream in central/eastern Oregon. This feature should promote
   greater storm coverage this afternoon. MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and
   effective shear 30-40 kts is sufficient for organized multicells and
   perhaps a supercell or two. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will
   be possible. Given only modest mid-level ascent and tempered surface
   heating, there is some uncertainty with regard to storm coverage.
   The greatest storm coverage appears likely to occur in southwest
   Montana where surface heating has been greater. The threat for
   severe hail and winds is likely to remain isolated, though a small
   cluster or two of storms could pose a locally higher risk of
   damaging wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 08/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

   LAT...LON   45071567 45391604 45981614 46231598 46631577 46841515
               46971496 47441323 47251171 45641071 44991075 44431117
               44271216 44071331 44151439 45071567