Mesoscale Discussion 1532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192356Z - 200130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of storms may continue developing and
   overspreading the Ontario/Minnesota border area, accompanied by some
   risk for severe hail and wind, through 8-9 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of strong to severe storms are in the process
   of approaching and crossing the Ontario/Minnesota border area. 
   Activity is generally focused within a narrow low-level thermal
   ridge, ahead of a slowly southward advancing cold front.  This
   likely has been aided by forcing for ascent associated with a
   mid-level short wave trough, but this forcing is beginning to shift
   off to the east-southeast, into and across the upper Great Lakes
   region.

   Still, a corridor with thermodynamic profiles characterized by at
   least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, and a relatively moist
   boundary-layer with CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, may maintain
   storms another couple of hours in the presence of strong deep-layer
   shear.  This activity may pose a continuing risk for severe hail and
   locally strong surface gusts, before encountering a cooler (and
   cooling), drier and more stable environment farther south, by around
   02-03Z.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...

   LAT...LON   49079421 48229096 47528983 47919276 48359437 49079421