Mesoscale Discussion 1533
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020

   Areas affected...Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201759Z - 202000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong/damaging microbursts will be possible this
   afternoon. No WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...A belt of 30 kt mid-level flow is overspreading a
   destabilizing boundary layer across central Florida. MLCAPE has
   risen to 2000-2500 J/kg with visible satellite showing relatively
   clear skies downstream of storms initiating along the sea breeze
   boundary near Tampa. With low-level shear very weak, storm outflows
   are likely to destructively interfere with intensifying updrafts
   which has been observed on KTBW radar imagery. Continued storm
   development appears likely to occur along some of the numerous
   outflow boundaries. With moderate buoyancy, 25-35 kts of effective
   shear, and a very moist troposphere, a few strong/damaging
   downbursts are possible with any marginally organized storms. Given
   the mitigating factors, this activity is likely to remain marginally
   severe and spatially limited. No WW is expected.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28708276 29208205 29538141 29598132 29588112 29408096
               28948072 28288052 27938071 27508179 27518242 28258281
               28708276