Mesoscale Discussion 1534
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western and central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202044Z - 202245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few convectively enhanced wind gusts and small hail are
   possible across portions of western and central Montana. Isolated to
   widely scattered storm coverage is expected. The potential for
   severe winds appears marginal without confidence in greater storm
   clustering/organization. A WW is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...With the approach of a mid-level shortwave trough,
   storms have initiated within the northern Rockies northwest of Great
   Falls with other activity also increasing within the Little Belt
   Mountains. Dewpoints have mixed out into the upper 40s F in most
   places. This has kept buoyancy limited to 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Effective shear across western Montana is 30-40 kts. Shear across
   central Montana will increase as the trough continues on its
   eastward track this evening. The primary hazard from these storms is
   expected to be convectively enhanced wind gusts, though some small
   hail may also occur. Lack of greater buoyancy should limit overall
   storm intensity and coverage. Greater risk for wind damage could
   occur if storms can cluster, but this scenario is quite uncertain. A
   WW is not anticipated this afternoon/evening.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48961044 48950942 48450833 47720790 46840812 46260849
               45840871 45350906 45030989 45291013 45951033 46631067
               46731113 46551187 46891248 47721279 48311239 48901143
               48961044