Mesoscale Discussion 1536
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0539 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020

   Areas affected...The Central Texas Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202239Z - 202345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A transient severe threat may persist for the next hour or
   so, but storms should gradually weaken into the evening hours. A
   watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Sea-breeze driven convection has been ongoing along the
   central TX Gulf coast over the past 1-2 hours. The current
   environment largely supports organized convection with sufficient
   deep layer shear (around 30-40 knots of 0-7 km bulk wind difference
   per the KCRP VAD), and around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This has allowed for
   some storm organization over the past hour. However, the orientation
   of the deep-layer shear into cool side of the sea breeze and outflow
   from prior convection is inhibiting the longevity of most cells.
   This casts uncertainty into how long even the more organized storms
   will persist. While a brief hail threat remains possible given the
   CAPE/shear parameter space, the longevity and coverage of the threat
   is too low for a watch.

   ..Moore/Edwards.. 08/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

   LAT...LON   27609728 27909763 28429753 28619700 28629643 28479626
               28139650 27869674 27609728