Mesoscale Discussion 1537
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado into northeastern New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202307Z - 210100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms spreading south-southeast of the Front Range and
   Sangre de Cristo Mountains may be accompanied by strong to locally
   severe wind gusts through about 8-10 PM MDT.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity which initiated in
   response to orographic forcing along the Front Range and Sangre de
   Cristo Mountains is in the process of slowly spreading away from the
   higher terrain, aided by north-northeasterly deep-layer ambient mean
   flow on the order of 15 kt.  Despite the weak nature of this flow,
   30-35 kt speeds at mid levels (around 500 mb) is contributing to
   modest deep-layer shear.  This may provide support for some
   continuing upscale growth and intensification during the next couple
   of hours, as convection begins to encounter somewhat better moisture
   and instability. 

   Coinciding with any such intensification, a hot and deeply mixed
   sub-cloud layer may become conducive to locally severe downbursts,
   aided by downward momentum transport.  Consolidating surface cold
   pools may also be accompanied by a few strong surface gusts, before
   convection begins to wane with the loss of daytime heating, by
   02-04Z.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40100441 40440377 39820313 37810303 36040382 35220541
               36850471 38280473 39010518 40100441