Mesoscale Discussion 1538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast New York through a portion of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211826Z - 212030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may become capable of producing
   locally strong wind gusts this afternoon. Overall threat does not
   appear sufficient to warrant a WW.

   DISCUSSION...This afternoon the atmosphere is destabilizing along
   and south of a zone of differential heating just ahead of a cold
   front from northeast NY through southern VT and NH and southeast
   Maine. Temperatures rising through the low to mid 80s F and
   dewpoints generally in the 50s F are sufficient for modest
   instability with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This region resides within a
   belt of 30-35 kt flow between 750 and 500 mb and 25-35 kt effective
   bulk shear. As boundary layer temperature-dewpoint spreads increase,
   some of the developing storms may produce a few instances of locally
   strong wind gusts.

   ..Dial/Guyer.. 08/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44077605 44087312 44236997 43387101 43217277 43417540
               44077605