Mesoscale Discussion 1542
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0809 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220109Z - 220315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe hail
   and strong winds for the next few hours. A watch is not expected due
   to the isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been ongoing across
   portions of northeastern NM over the past one to two hours. Most of
   these storms have posed only a transient severe risk due to
   undercutting outflows and storm interactions. However, recent, more
   isolated, cell development to the south and southeast ahead of this
   cluster has been noted. This new development is residing in an
   environment featuring 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear and
   sufficient 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This parameter space suggests storm
   organization and a severe hail threat are possible. Occasional MRMS
   MESH estimates up to one-inch hail support this idea, and steep (8-9
   C/km) 0-3 km lapse rates will also support the potential for
   downburst wind gusts with the stronger cells. Nearly straight
   hodographs per RAP forecast soundings suggest storm splits are
   possible that could gradually increase storm coverage and the
   probability of destructive storm interference with time. Overall,
   the severe potential is expected to be fairly transient/isolated and
   associated with the stronger cells across eastern NM. This
   consideration, combined with uncertainties regarding storm mode and
   coverage heading into the late evening hours, precludes a watch.

   ..Moore/Edwards.. 08/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34640570 34890470 34780335 34610294 34220291 33640292
               33300318 33130376 33110444 33180505 33560551 34180577
               34640570