Mesoscale Discussion 1543
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota into west central
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

   Valid 220254Z - 220500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong, to perhaps locally severe, wind gusts will remain
   possible across and southwest of the Greater Minneapolis
   metropolitan area through 10-11 PM, before thunderstorms begin to
   weaken more substantively.  It appears unlikely that a new watch
   will be needed farther east.

   DISCUSSION...A compact, but organized, mesoscale convective system
   continues to approach the Minneapolis metro and areas to the
   southwest.  The leading edge of the outflow surged out ahead of the
   stronger leading line of storms, but the distance has been
   maintained at about 5-10 miles for about the past hour or so.  The
   stronger convection has largely maintained intensity, but peak
   measured surface gusts to this point have generally only approached
   severe limits.

   Into the 03-04Z time frame, the gust front will overspread the
   Minneapolis metro area.  However, it appears that the strongest
   continuing thunderstorm development may tend to propagate near or
   just southwest through south of the metropolitan area, aided by weak
   warm advection along a residual low-level baroclinic zone.  Even
   this activity seems likely to gradually diminish in intensity
   shortly thereafter, as system inflow tends to become less unstable 
   across far southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

   ..Kerr.. 08/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45719370 45669231 45049157 44429185 43679295 43779403
               44239471 44849372 45719370