Mesoscale Discussion 1545
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220827Z - 221030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts may accompany southward-progressing
   thunderstorm clusters through early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning
   across parts of central Texas. This activity is associated with a
   weak shortwave impulse near the Red River. This impulse should
   continue migrating south/southeast through the morning hours, and
   clusters of thunderstorms may persist across central Texas into the
   daylight hours. 

   While moderate near-surface inhibition exists, regional VWP data
   shows a modest southerly low level jet around 25-30 kt over the
   region. Considerable veering with height noted in 06z regional RAOBs
   and current VWP data is contributing to 30-45 kt of effective shear
   as well. Downstream dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s beneath
   midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km are resulting in MUCAPE values
   around 1000-2000 J/kg. As a result, an loosely-organized storm
   cluster should continue tracking southward the next several hours.
   Some CAMs guidance suggests some upward development/cold-pool
   induced forward-propagation is possible. Locally strong gusts could
   accompany this activity as it encounters greater instability with
   southward extent. Any more discrete cells within the larger cluster
   could also produce hail to near 1-inch. Given the marginal nature of
   the threat, and climatologically unfavorable timing for severe
   convection, a watch is not expected, but trends will be monitored.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30949983 31119974 31359919 31649856 31859826 31829780
               31539760 31379737 30919704 30279697 29819714 29449752
               29309883 29469957 29739986 30159989 30949983