Mesoscale Discussion 1549
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

   Areas affected...Central to northern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222357Z - 230130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose a risk for hail and wind
   over the next one to two hours, but the threat should remain limited
   in coverage and duration. A watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and KDMX radar imagery show
   developing thunderstorms within a diffuse confluence zone in the
   vicinity of a weak surface low. These storms are forming within a
   moderately unstable air mass (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) with around 35
   knots of effective bulk wind shear normal to the initiating
   boundaries. This environment is sufficient for supporting discrete,
   organized convection that could pose a severe hail and wind threat
   over the next one to two hours. However, lift across this region is
   fairly weak and may struggle to sustain long-lived convection.
   Additionally, the onset of diurnal cooling/increasing inhibition
   after sunset casts uncertainty into the longevity of these storms
   after 01 UTC. These concerns, coupled with the isolated nature of
   the threat preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 08/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42869514 42939405 42669306 42119293 41579328 41539390
               41749475 42159507 42629514 42869514