Mesoscale Discussion 1550
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

   Areas affected...Central NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231639Z - 231815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging downbursts possible over the next few
   hours across central New York.

   DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed near the central
   PA/NY border over the past hour or so. Impetus for these storms
   appears to be the modest ascent attendant to the weak vorticity
   maximum moving northward/northeastward out of central PA. Strong
   insolation downstream across central NY has resulted in air mass
   destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates. Storm organization
   and persistence will likely be mitigated by generally modest
   vertical shear, but buoyancy is still be strong enough for updrafts
   capable of water loading and isolated strong downbursts.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42097737 42797710 43057636 42877561 42557543 42087565
               42097737