Mesoscale Discussion 1551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231754Z - 231930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of the stronger updrafts may produce a severe
   hailstone or two over the next couple of hours. The severe threat is
   expected to be relatively localized and isolated in nature.

   DISCUSSION...Updrafts embedded within a loosely organized convective
   cluster have gradually intensified over the past few hours, with a
   few cores briefly depicting up to 50 dBZ over the -20C layer (per
   MRMS mosaic radar data). These storms are currently being sustained
   along the terminus of a south-southwesterly 925-850 mb wind maxima
   beneath a mid-level ridge axis, and are rooted above the boundary
   layer, with MLCIN remaining rather strong across the northern
   Plains. As such, storms are expected to remain elevated as they
   propagate east during the afternoon. Storms will continue to move
   eastward, away from the aforementioned terminus, with convergence
   above the sfc layer diminishing with eastward extent. However,
   stronger flow aloft pivoting the ridge axis (resulting in 30+ knot
   effective bulk shear values) along with 2500+ J/kg MUCAPE across
   eastern North Dakota may prompt a few of the stronger updrafts to
   briefly become severe for a couple of hours. A few severe hailstones
   would be the primary threat should intense enough updrafts develop.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46900066 47720054 48239987 48459832 48229736 47529708
               46599693 46299768 46750013 46900066