Mesoscale Discussion 1553
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast PA...Central/Eastern MD...Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231957Z - 232200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will exist
   across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of
   the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Ascent attendant to the modest shortwave trough moving
   through the OH Valley coupled with diurnal destabilization is
   resulting in gradually increase thunderstorm coverage across
   portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic States. Favorable combination
   of ascent and buoyancy is now beginning to overlap an area of
   slightly stronger mid-level flow from southeast PA into northern VA.
   As a result, the potential for a few stronger, more organized
   updrafts capable of water loading and strong downbursts is
   increasing. The lack of stronger forcing for ascent and presence of
   only modest vertical shear should keep the coverage of any severe
   storms isolated and relatively short duration.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39707802 40507721 40607641 40307569 39347588 38337705
               38427824 39007839 39707802