Mesoscale Discussion 1554
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

   Areas affected...western South Dakota into southeast North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232210Z - 232345Z

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may produce hail or gusty winds over western
   South Dakota through about 01-02Z. To the east, a cluster of strong
   to severe storms is expected over far southeast North Dakota, and
   possibly into far northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota
   this evening. In addition to heavy rain, sporadic hail or strong
   wind gusts will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Several storms have formed over western SD near the
   surface trough where temperatures are hot. The steep lapse rate
   environment along with modest northwest flow aloft will favor
   southeastward-moving cells capable of marginally severe hail or
   strong wind gusts for a few more hours before dissipating over
   central SD this evening.

   Farther east, a stationary front stretches from the SD/ND border
   into northwest MN, and visible imagery shows TCU north of a MBG to
   ABR line as of 2145Z. A cluster of storms is likely to form along
   this boundary, which will then move/train in an east/southeast
   direction this evening. While this may produce increasing outflow
   and perhaps result in elevated storms this evening, a window will
   exist for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts within the
   first 1-2 hours of initiation when updrafts are strongest.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43600276 43910310 44150326 45060220 45560132 46330028
               46879849 46789647 46429554 45689531 45309617 45309752
               45039858 44590015 44280034 43880113 43680179 43600276