Mesoscale Discussion 1556
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...extreme southeast ND/northeast SD into west-central
   MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240617Z - 240815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong storms may continue into the early morning hours.
   Strong gusts and hail are possible, but threat is expected to stay
   mostly sub-severe.

   DISCUSSION...An elevated cluster of storms continues to track
   east/southeast near the ND/SD border into west-central MN late this
   evening. Gusts between 39-45 kt have been measured with this
   activity over the past hour. A modest southerly low level jet is
   noted in VWP data from FSD. This, along with 25-35 kt effective
   shear, may allow for continuation and loose organization of this
   cluster over the next several hours as it moves east/southeast along
   an instability gradient oriented west-to-east from the ND/SD border
   into central MN. Steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.0 C/km also
   were noted in 00z regional RAOBs, and could support marginally
   severe hail, though storm mode should temper this threat.  Overall,
   given the elevated nature of convection and rather modest low level
   jet, the overall threat should remain limited and generally
   sub-severe, with only sporadic strong gusts and hail possible into
   the overnight hours.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45739479 46079495 46359572 46549651 46519706 46249772
               45819818 45559824 45309810 45069740 44879660 44849554
               45089499 45469480 45739479