Mesoscale Discussion 1559
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Western/Central MD...Far
   Northern VA...Eastern WV Panhandle...South-Central NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241644Z - 241845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon. A
   few of these storms may be strong enough to produce damaging wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed quickly across
   western/central PA over the past hour or so. Impetus for this
   development appears to be modest forcing for ascent attendant to an
   approaching shortwave trough impinging on the diurnally
   destabilizing air mass. Mid-level lapse rates are relatively weak
   across the region, but ample low-level moisture still results in
   modest instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE increasing
   from around 1000 to 1500 J/kg from west to east across the region.
   Continued heating over the next few hours is expected to result in
   strengthening buoyancy. Additionally, mid-level flow increases
   gradually with eastern/southeastern extent, with the strongest flow
   currently extending from western VA/central WV northeastward across
   the Delmarva Peninsula. Consequently, the environment downstream of
   ongoing storms appears supportive of modest strengthening and a
   resultant increase in the potential for a few damaging wind gusts.
   Predominate storm mode will likely be pulse/outflow-dominant but a
   few bowing line segments could also occur.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   41007801 42337678 42277520 41307497 39117595 38737768
               39417882 41007801