Mesoscale Discussion 1560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...Southern ME...NH...VT...MA...CT...RI...Eastern NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241800Z - 242000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase over the next few
   hours. Some of these storms could produce damaging downburst winds.

   DISCUSSION...Convective inhibition has eroded across much of New
   England ahead of a modest ascent attendant to a shortwave trough
   moving through southeast Quebec. Buoyancy across much of the region
   is modest, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE generally around 1000
   J/kg. The only exception is across MA, CT, and RI where temperatures
   have reached the upper 80s and MLCAPE is estimated to be around 1500
   J/kg. Mid-level flow is expected to be rather weak, which will limit
   storm organization/persistence and updraft intensity. Even so,
   widespread storm coverage coupled with steep low-level lapse rates
   will result in the potential for a few stronger downbursts capable
   of damaging wind gusts. Low probability threat also exists for hail,
   mainly farther north across southwest ME where the vertical shear is
   slightly stronger and mid-level temperatures are a few degrees
   cooler.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   44567283 45027105 44826892 43746972 43277042 42577070
               41737071 41367210 41757429 43707371 44567283