Mesoscale Discussion 1561
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle into extreme
   southeast Alabama and far southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241940Z - 242215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for isolated tornadoes may be increasing along
   portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. Convective trends will
   continue to be monitored for additional increases in intensity.

   DISCUSSION...While storm organization and intensity over land has
   been slow to materialize through the late morning/early afternoon
   hours, a recent uptick in low-level rotation has been noted within
   semi-discrete storms, embedded within a TC rainband, oriented from
   Escambia to Calhoun County, Florida. Surface temperatures and
   dewpoints (based on METAR observations) have remained in the upper
   70s to near 80F, contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (as
   persistently shown by Mesoanalyis over the past few hours).
   Mesoanalysis and sampling of radar VAD profiles along the coast have
   indicate a modest ramp up of low-level shear, with 100-150 m2/s2 0-1
   km SRH noted. Given the increasing weakening Marco, as well as
   westward displacement of the center relative to the onshore moving
   band. Questions remain regarding how vigorous tornado potential will
   be, with recent runs of the HRRR showing no discernible signal in
   increasing storm intensification, but 17-18Z WoF runs showing a
   modest, increase in storm intensity over the next 1-3h spanning the
   Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. After 23Z, WoF then
   depicts a gradual weakening trend.

   Despite the aforementioned uncertainties, convective trends will be
   closely monitored through the afternoon for the possibility of a WW
   issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30328785 30698775 30938715 31198609 31558522 31778449
               31578403 31238411 30798435 30318456 29978484 29938525
               30128593 30238688 30328785