Mesoscale Discussion 1562
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...Far Northeast SD...Southern MN...Southwest WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242100Z - 242230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk exists across portions of the
   Upper Midwest for the next few hours. Thereafter, elevated storms
   may pose a hail risk this evening and overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central SD
   with a warm front extending northeastward from this low to the
   southern SD/MN border, and then continuing east-southeastward across
   southern MN into southwest WI. Relatively warm low to mid-level
   temperatures have prevented air mass destabilization thus far,
   despite surface temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s south of the
   front. Even so, modest but persistent ascent across the region has
   resulted in several attempts at deep convection. Thus far, these
   attempts have been unsuccessful, with the exception of the small
   storm in Sibley County MN. Given the continued convective
   inhibition, the expectation is for any storms that do develop to be
   relatively short lived. However, the kinematic environment supports
   rotating storms and there is a low probability of a strong
   surface-based storm or two. Any persistent surface-based storm would
   pose a severe risk, with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary
   threat.

   A more certain and predicable severe threat is expected to
   materialize this evening/tonight as a strengthening low-level jet
   supports warm-air advection storms north of the warm front.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45759697 45529500 44129046 43049076 44809739 45759697