Mesoscale Discussion 1564
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...Central to southeast Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250355Z - 250600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will continue to pose a severe hail
   and isolated wind risk over the next few hours as storms move into
   southern Wisconsin. Trends will be monitored for additional
   storms/upscale growth later tonight across western Wisconsin.

   DISCUSSION...KGRB radar imagery over the past hour has shown a
   cluster of elevated storms continue to increase in intensity over
   central WI with one-inch hail and mid-level rotation noted. This
   intensification is likely due to an strengthening low-level jet near
   850 mb that has augmented isentropic ascent along a warm frontal
   zone that is draped across the state. These elevated storms will
   continue to reside in a favorable environment (featuring around 2000
   J/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear) as they move
   into southeast WI over the next few hours. This environment should
   remain steady state in the near term and suggests that ongoing
   convection will likely maintain intensity. As such, severe hail and
   sporadic strong winds will remain possible. 

   In the near term, the severe coverage is expected to remain limited
   and precludes the need for a watch at this time. However, additional
   weak thunderstorms have developed within the past 30 minutes across
   western WI. The potential exists for further development and
   eventual cold pool amalgamation/upscale growth into central WI.
   Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible later tonight.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 08/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   42618975 43409007 43879087 44349176 44769225 45179206
               45169137 44829017 44518942 44228892 43588831 43078804
               42868798 42578789 42218830 42308903 42618975