Mesoscale Discussion 1568
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

   Areas affected...Far northeast OH...Western/Central
   PA...South-Central/Central NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251602Z - 251800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage anticipated over the next
   several hours. Some of these storms could be severe, producing
   damaging wind gusts and/or isolated hail.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from the
   Tug Hill Plateau southwestward to Lake Erie and then back westward
   across far southern Lower MI. There are some indications of a modest
   pre-frontal trough ahead of the cold front, from roughly the far
   northern NY/VT border southwestward into north-central OH and then
   back westward through northern IN. Thunderstorms have recently
   developed along the front over the northern OH/PA border vicinity.
   Visible satellite imagery now shows sharper cumulus from these
   storms northward into central NY. 

   All of these observations indicate convective inhibition has likely
   been eroded ahead of the front and that storm development along and
   ahead of the front is becoming increasingly likely. Environment
   ahead of the front is characterized by moderate instability and
   vertical shear, which will likely support the development of some
   severe storms. A predominately multicellular storm mode is
   anticipated, with bowing line segments also possible. Primary severe
   threat is damaging wind gusts, but some hail may also occur.

   ..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41378131 42227910 43337460 42187450 40547812 40258091
               41378131