Mesoscale Discussion 1577
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Maryland...Virginia...and Southern West
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

   Valid 260050Z - 260245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will remain possible as
   thunderstorms continue to weaken heading into the late evening hours
   across WW 451.

   DISCUSSION...Observational trends over the past hour have shown a
   gradual weakening in most convection along a broken line of
   thunderstorms from southern WV eastward into southern MD. Most
   segments of the line are becoming outflow dominant, likely the
   result of the onset of diurnal cooling as surface temperatures fall
   into the upper 70s and low 80s ahead of the line. Recent RAP
   mesoanalyses support this idea by showing diminishing MLCAPE and
   increasing MLCIN. This stabilizing trend will continue into the late
   evening and overnight hours, and storm intensity will continue to
   diminish as a result. However, a few pockets of strong convection
   persist across southern WV and southern MD, and 30-35 knot deep
   layer shear, along with residual 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, will continue to
   support organization and a damaging wind threat with the strongest
   cells in the near term.

   ..Moore.. 08/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37748253 38018175 37908081 38207933 38567683 38737616
               38157592 37557574 37217679 36927837 36827969 36808088
               36918184 37518265 37748253