Mesoscale Discussion 1582
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central Idaho into southwest Montana and
   extreme northwest Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262044Z - 262215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of marginally
   severe hailstones may occur with the stronger storms. A WW issuance
   is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating/boundary layer mixing is
   contributing to increased storm coverage and destabilization, with
   resultant steep tropospheric lapse rates (7-9 C/km from the sfc to
   near 500 mb) contributing up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest mid-level
   flow overspreading the region is also contributing to 35 knots of
   effective bulk shear, suggesting that some storm organization is
   possible over the next few hours. Given the aforementioned steep
   lapse rates, damaging wind gusts may accompany some of the stronger
   storms, and a couple marginal severe hailstones cannot be ruled out.
   Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated
   and a WW issuance is not currently expected.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 08/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   43551457 44131503 45061517 45681504 46041453 46561296
               46861202 47070935 46850821 46360767 45460745 44620750
               43900809 43580870 43420928 43380977 43551457