Mesoscale Discussion 1583
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262059Z - 262300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection may continue to intensify over the
   next couple of hours. Large hail and damaging gusts may accompany
   any storm that can mature over the next few hours. Storm coverage is
   expected to remain sparse however, and a WW issuance is not
   currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete supercell structures have been maturing over
   the past hour across Ziebach and Dewey Counties in central SD. These
   storms are maturing in an environment characterized by 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE and over 40 knots of effective bulk shear. With 7+ C/km
   mid-level lapse rates in place (per latest Mesoanalysis), a few
   severe hailstones may accompany the stronger storm cores, along with
   a couple damaging gusts. Nonetheless, with overall weak deep-layer
   ascent across the northern Plains, convective development is
   expected to remain isolated, with some of the latest HRRR guidance
   struggling to sustain convection for more than a few hours. As such,
   a WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 08/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44600204 45150196 45420061 45509886 45089818 44439797
               44119880 44110016 44280158 44600204