Mesoscale Discussion 1584
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula
   of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262319Z - 270045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Periodic intensification within a line of storms is
   possible over the next couple of hours. Isolated hail and perhaps
   damaging wind are possible, but a watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past hour from KDLH has shown a
   growing line of thunderstorms along the southwestern shores of Lake
   Superior/northern WI. A few intense cores have been noted in MRMS
   vertically integrated ice data as well as cooling top temperatures
   in IR imagery, but these cores have largely failed to maintain
   intensity for more than 10 minutes or so. This is largely due to
   increasing inhibition with eastward extent that is so far limiting
   the severe potential of this line. However, RAP forecast soundings
   suggest that gradual cooling in the 850-700 mb layer, associated
   with the approach of a weak shortwave trough, may help reduce
   inhibition over the next couple of hours. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   and 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear should remain in place
   across northern WI/western U.P of MI, and although the potential for
   severe hail and wind is low, this environment could support brief
   intensifications along the line that may be capable of severe hail
   and damaging winds. Due to the low probability of sustained severe
   convection, a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46479199 46829162 46959052 46918928 46808865 46438824
               46198873 46068965 46139093 46219182 46479199